Elevation or Elimination?

Some education providers move away from bootcamps and toward short-term tech training, as Deloitte and a U.S. House task force look at what AI could mean for workers without degrees. Also, California’s plan for career education, a bipartisan commission on the American workforce, and a new episode of the Cusp podcast.

Market Realities Upend Tech Training

It’s been a tough couple years for many jobseekers who have tried to break into software development and IT. And looking forward, artificial intelligence is certain to further scramble tech hiring and career paths.

The U.S. employs fewer software developers than it did before the pandemic, according to some measures. After a wave of Big Tech layoffs, more veteran developers have competed for entry-level work, while job postings for junior tech workers dried up.

Meanwhile, companies are investing heavily in AI, sometimes while cutting in other areas. The technology also increasingly can automate coding tasks traditionally handled by early-career developers. Hiring also has slowed for IT support roles, with more modest projected expansion compared to cyber and development jobs.

The tech job market is flat overall in this country. And while well-paying, highly desirable job openings are out there, observers say landing them has gotten tougher for nontraditional candidates, including those who attended coding bootcamps or sector-based training programs for IT roles.

The industry is growing quietly and with a smaller number of hires by companies, says Jeff Casimir, executive director of the Turing School of Software and Design.

“If you have experience or a top-school degree, there are opportunities for you through the whisper network of referrals,” he says. “If you have the skill and the will to do the job but not the privilege to find one, you’re out of luck.”

Short-Form Training: Student demand for reskilling or upskilling at coding bootcamps grew in 2024, according to Career Karma’s annual report. But the industry has seen recent cuts. Perhaps most notably, 2U this month announced that it is transitioning away from traditional bootcamps, replacing them with technical microcredentials.

The formerly publicly traded ed-tech giant recently restructured, emerging from bankruptcy as a privately held company. 2U’s well-covered fall stands in stark contrast to the heights of five years ago, when it paid $750M for Trilogy Education Services. The bootcamp provider enabled the company to provide training to 96K working learners through partnerships with the continuing education divisions of more than 50 university partners.

Tech skills training has fundamentally shifted, 2U says, citing decreasing demand for entry-level roles and more of a hiring focus on specialized skills, particularly in AI and machine learning.

“The growing availability of shorter, lower-cost courses, along with the rise of generative AI, has created easier and more accessible pathways for learners to quickly and efficiently acquire skills for entry-level tech roles,” writes Matt Norden, 2U’s interim CEO and CFO. “Simply put, the long-form, intensive training that bootcamps provide no longer aligns with what the market wants and needs.”

Norden says the company is adjusting to new market realities by partnering with universities to “create more flexible programs that equip learners with the in-demand, practical skills for success in today’s rapidly evolving digital economy.”

The first offerings under this model are targeted professional tech certificates 2U is developing with Columbia Engineering, in areas such as Python fundamentals, machine learning, and AI applied fundamentals. Certificates in coding, data, AI, and cybersecurity are in development.

Ziplines Education could be a player to watch in this evolving space. Founded in 2018, the company describes itself as a career accelerator. It offers industry-aligned upskilling courses with 32 university partners, mostly through their professional and continuing education departments.

The cohort-based, noncredit courses provide unusual economies of scale, says Sara Leoni, Zipline’s founder and CEO, in part because they commingle students across university partners. The approach exposes students to professionals around the country, she says, while the modular, course-sized training is a better fit for a transitioning job market.

“We’re able to go in and learn at scale across many markets and test rapidly because we’re doing this across 30-plus institutions,” Leoni says. 

‘A Rising Waterline of Automated Capabilities’

Major new reports on artificial intelligence from Deloitte Consulting and a bipartisan congressional committee include analyses of the technology’s emerging impacts on jobs and what they mean for education and job training.

The door to tech roles has closed gradually since the early internet era, says Mike Bechtel, Deloitte’s chief futurist, as layers of specific technical skills were added to job requirements. But the advent of AI as a foundational workplace capability appears to be changing that dynamic.

“For the first time in 20 years the pendulum is starting to swing back in the other direction,” he says, as employers describe a “rising waterline of automated capabilities.”

Like electricity or the Hypertext Transfer Protocol, AI is headed toward becoming a ubiquitous, unseen substructure of everything we do, according to Deloitte. The company’s 16th annual tech trends report says IT leaders can use the moment as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to redefine job roles and responsibilities.

“If commercial functions see an increased number of citizen developers or digital agents that can spin up applications on a whim,” the report says, “the role of the IT function may shift from building and maintaining to orchestrating and innovating.”

Deloitte echoed the predictions of a tech insider who told us fewer roles in the industry will be static with defined processes.

The goal should be harnessing AI to do today’s tasks while elevating the role of IT workers, says Bechtel, so they can tackle higher-order tasks and a company’s strategic backlog. “You can’t shrink your way to success,” he says.

Instead of laying off IT workers, the Deloitte report says, tech leaders should focus on upskilling employees, which is another area where it says AI can help. Bechtel says forward-looking companies recognize the enhanced value of tech worker abilities that exist in the “connective tissue between disciplines,” with more of a focus on leadership, soft skills, and asking good questions. 

That sounds a lot like a liberal arts degree. So does that mean college for all will stage a comeback in tech? Not necessarily, says Bechtel. AI can serve as a “super suit” that can help people get to the next level in their jobs and careers, he says. That includes tech workers without college degrees.

“They see problems with different eyes,” Bechtel says of employees who hail from nontraditional backgrounds and educational paths. “And they bring diverse and non-obvious ideas.”

Beware Deskilling: The House task force on AI included 24 U.S. representatives, a dozen from each party. Their 253-page final report says the nation’s leadership on AI would be strengthened by tapping more of the skilled technical workforce, meaning people who are highly skilled but do not hold a four-year degree.

“However, many companies do not recognize certificates or even associate degrees as suitable credentials,” the report says, “and the adoption of nontraditional hiring pathways, like skills-based recruitment, remains low but is rising.”

The task force calls for better data on the AI workforce, more public-private partnerships, and region-specific responses, while giving a shout-out to the role federal agencies can play in supporting that work.

AI generally is expected to augment the knowledge of workers, the report says, enabling them to become more productive and to spend more time on complex problems instead of mundane tasks. But the task force warns that the technology’s adoption doesn’t always play out that way. 

For example, some fields have begun “deskilling” by automating complex tasks and leaving humans to perform lower-skilled ones, the report notes, pointing to examples from nursing and healthcare. As a result, the task force says, it’s critical to understand and monitor how skills, jobs, and roles change as AI is incorporated into the economy.

The Kicker: “Without careful development and deployment, automating the complex tasks that previously relied on nuanced human decisionmaking could result in poorer outcomes and a lower-skilled workforce,” the report says.

Human Capital Crisis

This week the Bipartisan Policy Center launched the Commission on the American Workforce, which will be led by former Tennessee governor Bill Haslam and former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick. The commission will convene workgroups that will focus on K-12, postsecondary pathways, workers and workforce, and worker supports.

The center said the commission’s recommendations will guide Congress as it considers reauthorizing the Higher Education Act, the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, and the Child Care and Development Block Grant.

In a video message to introduce the commission and its goals, Margaret Spellings, the center’s president and CEO, pointed to a mismatch between the skills and talents that are needed in the workplace and what Americans are prepared to do. But she also cited common barriers workers face, including childcare.

“The reasons that people drop out of the workforce are often not because of skill levels, but because of a lack of support,” Spellings said.

Open Tabs

Congressional Moves
Virginia Foxx, the North Carolina Republican who has been a fixture on the House Education and Workforce Committee, is stepping down as chair at the end of the year. She’s known for high-profile conservative stances like pushing for parents’ rights, school choice, and opposing student debt forgiveness. But Foxx, who was previously president of Mayland Community College, told Inside Higher Ed reporter Liam Knox that her work to improve WIOA—which she believes spends too much money on administration and too little on students—is among her most significant accomplishments.

The update to WIOA that Foxx championed is part of a continuing resolution Congress had been considering to keep the government operating. But that bipartisan deal appeared dead on Thursday. The WIOA update passed the House by large numbers in April, and recently cleared a labor-related dispute in the Senate.

Tim Walberg, a Michigan Republican, will take over as committee chair when the new Congress convenes. Walberg said the committee will have a continued focus on workforce training and providing “more opportunity and flexibility to American workers”—as well as parents’ rights, smaller government, and antisemitism on campus.

Education and Workforce
A collaborative, worldwide effort is needed to align workforce skills with rapidly evolving industries, according to the World Economic Forum. Education systems must evolve in tandem with workforce demands, while integrating adaptability, cross-cultural skills, and digital fluency into curricula. Singapore offers a strong model for this kind of workforce development, with its balance between technical training and cross-cultural competence.

Interest-Free Loans
The $100M Google Career Certificates Fund has helped more than 6K people since its creation in 2022. Google.org invested through the nonprofit Social Finance, which offers interest-free loans for training with no upfront costs for learners. In addition to Merit America and Year Up United, Social Finance added four new training partners to the program: Per Scholas, San Diego Workforce Partnership, Ada Developers Academy, and UnidosUS. The nonprofit also teamed up with Per Scholas to offer zero-percent loans for living expenses.

Trump on Automation
President-elect Trump is backing a dockworkers’ union, which has been in a dispute with shipping companies over port machinery that can move cargo without human involvement. “I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it,” Trump said on social media. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”

Oil and Automation
Fossil fuel producers in the U.S. pumped out 60% more oil per day with 40% fewer workers over the past decade, Avi Salzman reports for Barron’s. AI is helping to drive the industry’s productivity gains, which outpaced those of online retailers. Chevron and Exxon Mobil have embraced the technology, Salzman reports, as oil and gas companies are on track to spend more than $3B on AI this year. Big increases in those expenditures are expected in coming years.

That’s the last issue of 2024. I’ll send some highlights from Work Shift, the newsletter, and the Cusp podcast on Jan. 2. Our work is supported by philanthropic giving. If you’d like to keep reading agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on the virtually uncovered space of workforce education, please consider making a donation. Happy holidays, and catch you next year. —PF