ROI and Place

The strengths—and variation—of California’s community colleges in setting up students for economic success.

Author

Paul Fain
August 07, 2025

A new analysis of the labor market returns of certificates and two-year degrees earned by 1.2M college students in California. Also, Julia Freeland Fisher argues that the work-based learning field needs to take social capital more seriously, and other recent news and opinion writing from Work Shift. (If this newsletter was forwarded to you, subscribe here.)

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Highs and Lows in California

A new report from the College Futures Foundation and the research agency The HEA Group showcases the strengths—and variation—of California’s community colleges in setting up students for economic success. The report looks at the return on investment (ROI) for 1.2M students who attended 327 of the state’s community or certificate-granting colleges, from public to private for-profit and nonprofit institutions. 

Forty percent of public community colleges delivered an ROI for the typical graduate within a year after they completed their credential. Over 90% achieved this over five years. In comparison, only 5% of private nonprofit or for-profit institutions delivered an ROI within one year and 35% within five years. Researchers calculated ROI based on the average cost to students after scholarships and grants were deducted and their annual earnings after graduation compared to a California high school graduate with no college experience.

The Big Idea: The report is part of a growing push to better understand the ROI of colleges and, in many cases, specific programs at the state and regional level, in order to better advise students and to inform state and federal investment. President Trump last month signed the Republicans’ major domestic policy bill, which will restrict federal loans for students in programs with a low ROI.

California educates almost a quarter of all community college students nationwide, and its outcomes have an outsize effect on the nation as a whole.

“We launched our effort well before the federal framework, so this gives California institutions insight into where they’re at,” said Eloy Ortiz Oakley, president and CEO of the College Futures Foundation. “This is a movement that is taking hold at the federal level, the accrediting level, and the state level. We know that return on investment is more than a lofty goal for institutions to consider. It’s an imperative.” — By Colleen Connolly

Click over to Work Shift to read more about the analysis.

ROI Highs and Lows in California

A new analysis showcases the strengths—and variation—of California’s community colleges in setting students up for economic success.

Opinion: Internships Deliver More Than Skills—New Data Shows Connections Count

Too many institutions still treat networking as a secondary benefit, not a core component of work-based learning, writes Julia Freeland Fisher of the Christensen Institute.

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Open Tabs

Federal Policy
Nicholas Kent has been sworn in as the U.S. under secretary of education. Taxpayer money spent on higher education should have a direct impact on students’ ability to contribute to the workforce, he writes this week, plugging alternatives to the four-year degree, including apprenticeships, vocational training, and innovative credentials. Kent previously was Virginia’s deputy secretary of education after working at the for-profit college industry’s trade group.

AI and Employment
Entry-level job demand has declined across four of the five industries that typically hire the largest share of four-year college graduates, according to Lisa Simon of Revelio Labs. Roles that are highly exposed to AI have declined the most, while demand for senior positions in those same roles is holding up. Simon also describes a large discrepancy in job postings that mention the use of AI tools, with more adoption requirements for senior roles.

Community Colleges
Education for All is a 2,200-member group—including 250+ community college presidents—who are seeking solidarity and support on a growing number of federal policy challenges, Ben Austen reports for The New York Times Magazine. The group is helping its members prepare for the impacts of the Republican domestic policy bill, including how the ripple effects of Medicaid cuts could threaten tuition-free programs for two-year colleges in certain states.

Manufacturing Workforce
Simplifying and stabilizing access to funding for employer-led training programs is a workforce policy priority of the Manufacturing Institute. The institute also cited career exploration and training for students from middle school through postsecondary education, multi-employer partnership models with key training providers, and incentivizing industry associations and economic development organizations to serve as apprenticeship intermediaries.

State Funding
Outcomes-based funding strategies are proliferating across states and may be an effective way to make higher education funding increases more politically palatable, two researchers write in a brief for MDRC. Yet the funding models historically have been insufficient on their own to significantly boost overall credential attainment. As a result, state policymakers may consider combining them with investments in evidence-backed student supports and other strategies.

AI Training
Google is making its most advanced AI tools and training programs free for every U.S. college student. The company also will provide $1B in funding over three years to support AI education, job training programs, and research in this country, writes Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet. Students in the U.S. as well as Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea also are being offered a free one-year subscription to Google’s AI Pro plan.

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