Workforce Credentials and ROI

A new national data trust created by Strada seeks to help states and education providers understand which short-term credentials pay off. Also, as Republicans take control of the federal government, a collection of coverage from Work Shift charts the stakes for industrial policy, AI, apprenticeship, and community colleges.

Central Repository for Nondegree Data

Short-term education and training continues to expand across the U.S., with 31 states investing $5.6B in these programs over the last year. Yet policymakers and even training providers themselves lack solid information about whether the workforce credentials pay off in the labor market.

CredLens, a new nonprofit affiliated with the Strada Education Foundation, seeks to provide answers to key economic, education, and employment questions about the fast-growing nondegree credential space.

It won’t be easy, acknowledges Stacy Caldwell, president and CEO of CredLens.

“There’s almost no data to know what’s going on,” she says, and getting that information poses both technology and data challenges. “This is hard work.”

The organization’s launch is a good strategic development for the field, says Michelle Van Noy, director of the Education and Employment Research Center at Rutgers University.

“Many states are interested in these data, and I think it makes a lot of sense to have a central, national repository,” Van Noy says.

CredLens is hardly the first attempt to fill gaps in knowledge about microcredentials, noncredit certificates, industry certifications, and other forms of credentials that fall outside of the traditional college degree. For example, Education Quality Outcomes Standards (EQOS), a joint project from the Burning Glass Institute and Jobs for the Future, has similar goals.

“We see our role as complementary and part of the ecosystem,” says Caldwell.

The nonprofit has partnered with Credential Engine and incorporates the group’s approach to credential data. Likewise, CredLens is interested in collaborating with the Coleridge Initiative on various projects, including the multistate postsecondary dashboard that Kentucky and several other states are developing.

Yet data in some of these emerging systems is limited to certificate programs at public colleges, missing certain training programs states are looking to support. For example, certifications from CompTIA or for specific pharmacy technician roles often fall through the cracks.

“There is a need for a distinct organization to serve CredLens’s functions,” Caldwell says.

The nonprofit plans to operate a national data trust, collecting comprehensive information from education providers, industry certification bodies, and licensing boards, then matching it against wage records and employment data. CredLens plans to use the verified data to help policymakers and credential issuers answer questions such as: 

• What jobs do people get after earning the credential?

• How long does it take them to find jobs?

• How much money do people make after earning the credential?

• How does that compare to what they previously earned?

• What additional education do credential earners go on to pursue?

• What are the most commonly stacked credentials?

By offering richer and deeper data about the value of nondegree credentials, CredLens aims to help decisionmakers at state agencies or colleges make more informed decisions about where to invest. “We’re looking for pockets of real value,” says Caldwell. For example, she says the data might show where combinations of credentials pay off for learners. 

(Strada, which had roughly $2B in assets in 2022, last month released its public policy agenda. The nonprofit foundation also recently published an opportunity index that seeks to help states assess how well they are leveraging education after high school to strengthen workforce competitiveness and pathways to opportunity.)

As a national data trust, CredLens won’t be publishing rankings of specific nondegree credentials. And the nonprofit seeks to ensure that its data remains secure and accessible only for entities and individuals that receive permission.

“Over time, as we gather enough data in a specific region or industry to create useful benchmark models, we will do so, making sure these follow the guidelines of the data trust and agreements with credential issuers,” Caldwell says. “We anticipate that these benchmark models will be useful to both individual credential issuers, as well as policymakers, funders, workforce organizations, and the general public.”

CredLens also plans to make its insights available for users of the platform, and will share results more broadly through research papers and other potential outlets.

The nonprofit is up and running, having inked agreements with credential issuers. It is matching initial sets of credential data to outcomes information, Caldwell says, and plans to deliver insights to issuers by the end of the year. She says the range and depth of that information will grow rapidly next year. And CredLens hopes to have generated enough data to produce some industry benchmarks by the end of 2025.

Julia Lane, an economist at New York University and a renowned expert on public data, says the aspirations for CredLens “seem right on the money,” although some details about its strategy remain unclear. However, she worries about how long it will take for CredLens to start making an impact.

The Kicker: “It takes a lot of time and money to build such a trust,” Lane says.

AI, Industrial Policy, and the Election

There’s a clear consensus that Donald Trump’s election will impact many of the policies we’ve covered at Work Shift for the past few years. The new administration will almost certainly allow more unfettered growth of generative AI—though there was little talk during the campaign about what that might mean for American workers.

Trump has been hostile to the CHIPS and Science Act and to investments in clean energy, favoring an industrial policy that focuses on tariffs and more domestic drilling for oil. Community colleges have emerged as key players in providing the workforce training under those investments and thus have a lot at stake. Beyond industrial policy, the first Trump administration emphasized skills-based hiring for federal jobs and was supportive of apprenticeships, though it preferred programs that were less regulated and operated outside the traditional registered apprenticeship system. 

As we start reporting on the potential changes ahead, we’ve gathered a collection of coverage to help you level set on where things stand today—and what’s at stake when it comes to economic opportunity, especially for the most vulnerable Americans.
—By Elyse Ashburn

AI and Economic Opportunity

Industrial Policy and Economic Mobility

Modernizing Apprenticeships

Open Tabs

Relative Income
As the American economy has shifted over the past 40 years away from manufacturing and toward services and knowledge work, the average income of men of every racial group working without a college degree has fallen well below that of the average full-time worker, according to an analysis of relative wages by The New York Times. In an example of this relative income shift, registered nurses and dental hygienists now make more than factory supervisors.

Short-Term Credentials
State investments in short-term credential programs are growing rapidly and now exceed $5.6B across 31 states, according to an analysis by HCM Strategists. During the last year, 10 new state-funded initiatives in eight states have launched, increasing investments in this category of credentials by $1.7B. The investments are occurring in both red and blue states, the analysis notes, reflecting a growing recognition of the value of short-term education and training.

Workforce Legislation
States face a potential shortage of 6M workers across healthcare, skilled trades, and services over the next eight years, notes a report from the Center for American Progress. The report provides a 50-state scan of recent workforce development–related state legislation. For example, a cross-sector effort in Virginia aims to strengthen data-collection standards. The state also established the new Department of Workforce Development and Advancement.

Financing Option
Skills savings accounts, a flexible tool similar to health savings accounts, would allow workers and employers to contribute funds specifically for skills development, write the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation’s Jason Tyszko and Peter Beard from the Greater Houston Partnership. These accounts would provide a novel, public-private approach to upskilling and reskilling, they write, and could in particular boost the economic resilience of lower-wage and frontline workers.

IT Certifications
Two investment firms, H.I.G. Capital and Thoma Bravo, are acquiring the brand and products of CompTIA, which offers IT certifications and training. The vendor-neutral credentialing program has awarded more than 3.5M certifications. It also partners globally with academic institutions, nonprofits, and job training centers. After the transaction, CompTIA will operate as a for-profit company and be separated from the nonprofit membership organization.

Thanks for reading. Let me know what sort of coverage you would like to read in this newsletter? —PF